Weekly Market Insights - July 1, 2024

Can you believe the first half of 2024 is already behind us? And what a first half it was! Markets were higher across the board in the first half:

Nasdaq led the way: +19.40%

S&P 500: +15.75%

S&P 400 (Mid Cap): +5.84%

Russell 2000 (Small Cap): +1.22%

MSCI EAFE (Developed International): +5.71%

MSCI Emerging Markets: +7.04%

Wishing everyone a Happy 4th of July Week!

Now on with the show:

Stocks finished the last week of June and Q2 mixed as investors digested a fresh round of economic data.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slipped 0.08%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average also dipped 0.08 percent. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gained 0.24 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index tracks developed overseas stock markets and rose 0.27 percent for the week through Thursday’s close.¹

Nasdaq Regains Lead

Last week opened with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq heading lower, while the Dow rallied on momentum from the prior week. But by mid-week, the leadership shifted with the Nasdaq pushing higher.²

With the back half of the week packed with fresh economic data, conflicting stories developed about the economy. New home sales fell 11.3 percent in May—the largest month-over-month drop in a year and a half—while the supply of new homes hit a 16-year high. Meanwhile, first-quarter GDP revised slightly to 1.4 percent higher, and durable goods increased in May.^3,4,5

Friday's personal consumption and expenditure (PCE) data showed that core inflation slowed to 0.1 percent in May over the prior month and 2.6 percent year-over-year—its lowest annual rate in three years. Both figures were in line with expectations. Stock prices initially rallied on the upbeat inflation news, but the early gains faded as the trading day progressed.⁶

^{Source: YCharts.com, June 29, 2024. Weekly performance is measured from Monday, June 24, to Friday, June 28.
TR = total return for the index, which includes any dividends as well as any other cash distributions during the period.
Treasury note yield is expressed in basis points.}

Divergent Speakers

Federal Reserve officials have worked to communicate that despite the progress made on inflation in recent months, it remains above the Fed’s 2 percent target.

Last week, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman surprised the markets when she indicated, “I remain willing to raise the target range for the federal funds rate at a future meeting should progress on inflation stall or even reverse.” Fed Chair Powell, scheduled to speak on July 2, told investors on May 14, “I don’t think that it’s likely, based on the data that we have, that the next move that we make would be a rate hike.”⁷

This Week: Key Economic Data

Monday: ISM Manufacturing Index. Construction Spending.

Tuesday: Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks. Motor Vehicle Sales. JOLTS.

Wednesday: Jobless Claims. International Trade in Goods and Services. FOMC Minutes.

Friday: Employment Situation. Fed Balance Sheet.

^{Source: Investors Business Daily - Econoday economic calendar;  June 25, 2024
The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.}

This Week: Companies Reporting Earnings

Wednesday: Constellation Brands Inc. (STZ)

Friday: KalVista Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (KALV)

^{Source: Zacks, June 25, 2024
Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.}

"If you have passion, a chip on the shoulder, a sense of humor, and you can explain what you do very well, it doesn't matter if you're a plumber or a singer or a politician. If you have those four things, you are interesting."

– Larry King

Lake Eibsee
Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Bavaria, Europe, Germany

Footnotes and Sources

^{1. The Wall Street Journal, June 28, 2024}

^{2. The Wall Street Journal, June 28, 2024}

^{3. CNBC.com, June 27-28, 2024}

^{4. AP News, June 27, 2024}

^{5. Reuters, June 26, 2024} 

^{6. CNBC.com, June 28, 2024}

^{7. CNBC.com, June 25, 2024}

^{8. IRS.gov, March 1, 2023}

^{9. Eatingwell.com, January 29, 2023}